An estimated $2.28 billion, equivalent to 7.1 billion Tunisian dinars, represents Tunisia’s untapped export potential to at least 36 African countries, according to Leïla Baghdadi, Senior Economist in the Office of the Chief Economist for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region at the World Bank.
She presented this estimate during a roundtable discussion held in Tunis on Wednesday titled “Diversification of Tunisian Exports to the African Continent: Opportunities, Constraints and Policy Levers,” organised by the “Qawafel” project in collaboration with the “Savoir Éco” initiative.
Based on the publication “Increasing Intra-African Trade: Can the African Continental Free Trade Area Be the Game Changer?” co-authored by Baghdadi, over 95% of the opportunities lie in markets where Tunisia currently has a low or nonexistent share. The main export potential is concentrated in electrical machinery and the clothing sector.
Baghdadi highlighted several structural constraints limiting Tunisia’s export diversification toward Africa, including high logistics costs, tariff and non-tariff barriers, limited industrial development in Africa, weak intra-African complementarities, regional fragmentation, lack of regional integration, and low levels of intra-African trade.
To address these challenges, she recommended improving logistics infrastructure and strengthening access to information to enhance export planning. She also stressed the importance of identifying potential export markets using analytical tools such as “Trade-DSM,” a scientific market selection tool designed to identify export opportunities for SMEs and countries.
Developed in South Africa, the tool processes large datasets to reveal high-potential product-country combinations that remain untapped.
For her part, Sonia Ben Khedher, expert and author of policy briefs on Tunisia’s export potential in Africa under the “Qawafel” project, highlighted the Trade-DSM decision-making model.
She noted that its use enabled the identification of 2,999 export opportunities across 36 African markets, with a total value of $2.28 billion, covering 590 products.
More than half of opportunities in North Africa
More than half (53%) of these opportunities are concentrated in North Africa (Algeria, Libya, Morocco). West Africa accounts for 1,072 opportunities across countries such as Nigeria, Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire, and Senegal.
Additional opportunities have been identified in East and Southern Africa (Kenya, Mauritius, South Africa), as well as Central Africa, particularly Angola. The most promising sectors include electrical machinery, textiles, agri-food products, and automotive parts and accessories.
To capitalize on these opportunities, the economist recommended supporting companies, adopting targeted trade promotion strategies, strengthening economic diplomacy, creating higher value-added products, and increasing economic complexity.
Participants at the event, including institutional officials and support organizations—agreed on the need for a pragmatic approach that leverages historical ties between Tunisia and African countries while taking into account the specificities of each market.
The role of startups
They also emphasized the need to simultaneously improve enterprise performance, strengthen support structures, and adapt regulations. Tunisia, they noted, should encourage startups to explore African markets and promote services exports alongside goods.
The “Qawafel” project supports the internationalization of Tunisian startups and SMEs across Africa and is funded by the French Development Agency (AFD).
“Savoirs Éco” is a project funded by the European Union and implemented by Expertise France. It aims to support public debate on economic issues in Tunisia by strengthening knowledge-producing institutions focused on economic matters.
