Tunisia is expected to close 2025 with a decline in foreign exchange reserves, but still sufficient to cover 91 days of imports, according to the Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE).
The total net foreign currency requirement to cover the current account deficit and repay external debt is estimated at TND 3,136 million in 2025, compared to just TND 98 million in 2024, the IACE noted in its report “Macro-Financial Stability in Tunisia: Achievements of the National Program versus the IMF Program”, published Thursday.
The IACE attributes this sharp increase to a high current account deficit, resulting from both stagnating exports (-0.3% over the first eight months of 2025) and rising imports (+4.8%), as well as specific losses such as the drop in olive oil prices (TND 1.1 billion) and decreased hydrocarbon production (nearly TND 1 billion).
“The gain from lower oil prices was only TND 357 million over eight months, or 5%, even though prices had fallen by 15% compared to the previous year,” the report emphasized.
However, the country benefits from a foreign currency inflow through capital aid and net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), the IACE added.
It also noted that the external debt service for 2025 (estimated at TND 10,500 million in principal) will be covered, although this will require a reduction in foreign exchange reserves.
“Despite this anticipated reduction, the reserve stock should remain sufficient to cover 91 days of imports, a level considered acceptable by financial institutions,” the IACE said.
The report also highlighted that external debt continues to drop while meeting payment deadlines, which “is essential to reassure investors and foreign lenders.”
According to the authors, “these performances explain the recent upgrades of Tunisia’s rating by international agencies.”
