Tunisia has significantly raised its climate ambition for 2035, according to the preliminary draft of its upcoming Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), published by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
This draft document updates Tunisia’s last revised NDC submitted to the UNFCCC in 2021. It redefines the country’s climate strategy as the international community convenes in Belém, Brazil, for the 30th UN Climate Change Conference (COP30).
The draft proposes a 62% reduction in carbon intensity by 2035 (with an interim target of 46.2% by 2030), marking a major leap compared to the 2021 NDC, which aimed for an overall 45% reduction by 2030.
Without external support, Tunisia targets a 31% reduction (with an interim objective of 28% by 2030), compared to 27% in the previous NDC.
Regarding net emissions, Tunisia aims to bring them down to 24 MtCO₂e (metric tons of CO₂ equivalent) by 2035 (compared to 35 MtCO₂e in 2010), thereby avoiding around 152 MtCO₂e of cumulative net emissions during 2026–2035 (relative to a business-as-usual scenario).
Of these avoided emissions, 81% are expected from the energy sector and 14% from agriculture, forestry, and other land use.
USD 28 billion in financing needed
Another major change is the extension of the implementation period, now set for 2026–2035, signalling Tunisia’s shift toward longer-term climate planning.
While sectoral coverage remains unchanged (energy, industrial processes, agriculture and land, waste, and major greenhouse gases), the draft introduces for the first time a structured mitigation trajectory through 2035, including cumulative volumes of avoided emissions.
The adaptation component is also strengthened. Whereas the 2021 NDC focused on water, agriculture, the coastline, and health, the new version expands to biodiversity, education and training, social inclusion, and youth, with plans to establish quantified targets for 2030 and 2035.
However, the most ambitious scenario depends heavily on substantial international financial and technological support.
Compared to the previous NDC, which estimated needs at around USD 19.4 billion for 2021–2030, the updated climate plan foresees total financing needs of approximately USD 28.22 billion by 2035, including requirements for capacity building, technology transfer, and cross-cutting support.
The resilience component
It is important to recall that the process of developing the National Climate Change Resilience Strategy (NCCRS) was based on broad consultations with all sectors and activity domains most vulnerable to climate change (CC), as well as the use of the latest and most innovative data, tools, and approaches.
The resilience component adopts a comprehensive approach, taking into account current and future developments in priority vulnerable sectors, climate trends, and the country’s socio-economic context.
It sets Tunisia’s long-term adaptation objective to climate change, along with the key projects to be undertaken and the resources needed to achieve them.
This component follows a sustainable development path, proposing a set of actions and adaptation mechanisms aimed at driving change.
It also seeks to ensure that Tunisia’s development model is compatible with new climate realities. Like the low-carbon transition component of the strategy, it is aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and is consistent with the NDC updated in 2021.
