The recent war against Iran and tensions in the Strait of Hormuz have exacerbated the difficulties of the Tunisian economy by driving up global oil prices.
This patent fact weighs heavily on Tunisia’s financial situation, all the more so given that the 2026 finance law was drawn up based on an average oil price of $63.3 per barrel, whereas it is currently fluctuating between $72 and $73.
Economist Moez Soussi points out that each one-dollar increase in the average annual oil price represents an additional cost of around 170 million dinars for the state budget, thereby increasing the energy bill and the need for foreign currency.
On Express Fm, he estimated that the decline in Tunisia’s foreign currency reserves to the equivalent of 97 days of imports cannot be separated from the structural imbalances affecting the national economy.
According to him, the trade deficit, the energy deficit, and the upcoming external debt repayments are the main factors weighing on the country’s foreign currency reserves.
He explained that the stock of foreign currency has decreased compared to the same period last year, when it covered 100 days of imports, specifying that the cost of one day of imports stood at around 253 million dinars on July 3, 2026, meaning that any increase in imports directly impacts the level of reserves.
Beware of the impact on the external debt repayment schedule!
The economist warned about the impact of external debt maturities. He indicated that Tunisia is set to repay, on July 15, 2026, a foreign loan of 700 million euros, issued in 2019 with an interest rate of 6.3%.
The total repayment amount is expected to reach approximately 2.5 billion dinars, equivalent to ten days of imports.
According to him, the simultaneous occurrence of a worsening trade deficit and major debt repayment deadlines significantly reduces the safety margin provided by foreign currency reserves and increases pressure on the country’s major financial balances.
Soussi insisted on the need to tackle the structural causes of this situation, particularly by strengthening the export capacity of the Tunisian economy, supporting the tourist season, encouraging remittances from Tunisians living abroad, attracting more foreign investment, and financing productive projects.
He also advocated for better scheduling of projects financed by external partners to guarantee regular inflows of foreign currency within the expected timeframes.
The economist added that the current situation is not merely cyclical, but stems above all from structural factors, notably the worsening trade deficit.
He indicated that Tunisian exports rose by about 5% during the first five months of 2026, while imports increased by 9.6%.
This trend caused the import coverage rate by exports to fall from 76.2% to 73%. At the same time, the trade deficit widened by 2.048 billion dinars, which, according to his estimates, is equivalent to about eight days of imports, given the current cost of one day of imports.
Soussi stressed that the energy deficit remains the most worrying factor. This deficit worsened by 1.493 billion dinars by the end of May 2026 compared to the same period the previous year and represents nearly three-quarters of the trade deficit, which explains the scale of the pressure on foreign currency reserves.
