Tunisia’s economic growth remains sluggish and, at times, declining, as successive episodes continue to weigh on its performance.
The National Institute of Statistics (INS) revealed on Saturday that the growth rate for 2024 stood at just 1.4%.
During the fourth quarter of 2024, “estimates from quarterly national accounts show that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume terms, adjusted for seasonal variations, grew by 2.4% year-on-year.
On a quarterly basis, compared to the third quarter of 2024, GDP in volume terms increased by 0.9%.”
Agriculture: The major driver of growth
The INS also reported a 7.1% increase in domestic demand in volume terms, contributing positively by 7.5% to the economic growth of the fourth quarter of 2024 (2.4%).
Conversely, the balance of foreign trade in goods and services showed a negative contribution of -5%, due to a 0.2% decline in the volume of goods and services exports and a 9.7% rise in imports.
Agricultural activities remain the primary engine of growth. The sector’s value added grew by 12.1% year-on-year during the fourth quarter of 2024. The agricultural sector contributed 0.97% to the 2.4% growth rate recorded in the last quarter of the previous year.
The value added of the manufacturing sector also increased by 1.5%, driven by a 2.1% rise in the value added of agri-food industries, an 8.1% increase in chemical industries, and a 2.5% growth in mechanical and electrical industries.
In contrast, the value added of the energy, mining, water production and distribution, sanitation and waste management sectors declined by 7.9% during the fourth quarter of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023, due to a 16.9% drop in the value added of oil and natural gas extraction.
Overall, the value added of the industrial sector fell by 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the construction and building sector grew by 2.5%.
The services sector maintained a positive activity rate during the fourth quarter of 2024. Its value added grew by 1.9%, driven by a 5.7% increase in the value added of hotels, restaurants, and cafes, a 5% rise in transport, and a 1.3% growth in information technology and communication.
Growth rate falls short of expectations
According to analysts, such as economist Bassam El Neifar, the growth rate recorded for the entire year of 2024, estimated at 1.4%, fell short of expectations despite the positive contributions from the agriculture and tourism sectors.
On Mosaïque FM, he emphasized the need to continue efforts to improve this rate by addressing challenges in the extractive sectors, given their crucial role in generating foreign currency. He also stressed the importance of stimulating domestic consumption and maintaining internal demand.
During the discussion of the 2025 budget, expectations were set on achieving a growth rate of 1.6% for the previous year, although international financial institutions had anticipated a rate not exceeding 1.2%.
El Neifar noted that the fourth quarter of last year saw a 0.9% growth compared to the third quarter of 2025 but a 2.4% increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2023.
He added that the most notable sector contributing to the mentioned growth rate was agriculture, which achieved 12.1% growth in the fourth quarter, accounting for 0.97% of the 2.4% growth rate recorded in that quarter.
This was offset by a decline in the value added of extractive industries due to reduced phosphate and natural gas extraction during the same period.
On the other hand, the economist stated that the industrial sector’s performance was positive in the fourth quarter, despite a 0.9% decline for the entire year.
