Without any projections in figures for next year, the State Budget 2025, whose report was consulted by us, dwelt at length on the achievements of the 2024 financial year, with which it was satisfied.
And it was right, if some of the figures are anything to go by. In the 8 months to 2024, the Tunisian Treasury collected 27.353 billion dinars in tax revenues. This represents an increase of 9.9%. This was the result of a 12.8% rise in direct tax revenues and an 8.4% increase in personal income tax revenues.
Payroll tax yielded 7.3% more, thanks to the application of the 2nd tranche of the salary increase decided in October 2022. And it’s worth remembering that the more salaries rise, the more the taxman gets.
It’s a well-known fact that it sometimes only takes a few TND for the rate of personal income tax to increase, and it’s also a well-known fact that when you move from one level of the tax scale to the next, you lose more than you gain – and net!
Also in 2024, the Tunisian treasury collected 6% more in VAT, 7.6% more in customs duties, 4.3% more in consumption taxes and 12.8% more in various other taxes. All of these taxes are paid by the final consumer, the citizen, and have a direct impact on his or her purchasing power.
In the 8 months to 2024, the Tunisian government raised TND 1.864 bn in foreign borrowing and TND 14.244 bn on the local market, including TND 6.383 bn in treasury bills, TND 2.483 bn through the national bond issue and TND 577 million in foreign currency bank loans from local banks.
A rising state budget, but a slightly overoptimistic growth forecast
For 2025, the Tunisian state should have a budget of TND 78.231 billion, an increase of 3.3%. This 2025 budget is based on a growth forecast of 3.2% of GDP at constant prices, an oil price of USD 077.4 per barrel, a constant exchange rate for the Tunisian dinar, a 4.2% increase in imports and constant international food prices, which we believe to be equally unlikely.
For 2025, the Tunisian government expects budget revenues of TND 50.028 billion, of which 63.9% will come from domestic sources, an increase of TND 2.717 billion compared to 2024.
The Tunisian government also expects to collect TND 45.249 billion in tax revenue from the pockets of its citizens, both individuals and companies, including 42.8% in direct taxes and 57.2% in indirect taxes such as customs duties, VAT, CT and other taxes directly from the taxpayer’s pocket.
And like every year, the 2025 budget plans to spend (TND 59.828 billion) more than it takes in (TND 50.028 billion), to pay more and more salaries (TND 24.389 billion) to collect more and more taxes and to promise more and more wage increases.
Despite these ever-increasing wage bill figures, the 2025 budget note states that the wage bill will only represent 13.3% of GDP, down 3.2 points.
The same document shows that financing expenditure, also known as debt repayment, is expected to mobilize TND 6.487 billion, slightly less than the TND 6.838 billion in 2024.
Education, industry and interior in the top 3 of 2025 budget
Next year, the Ministry of Education, which remains Tunisia’s top priority, will receive the largest budget (over TND 8 billion, with a slight increase). This is not far behind the TND 7.5 billion that will go to the Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy, which will remain at the same level as in 2024. And in third place among the largest 2025 budgets is the Ministry of the Interior (TND 5.931 billion, up very slightly).
The defense budget will increase by around TND 500 million to TND 4.5 billion, just ahead of the health ministry, which will receive a budget of TND 4 billion.
As an aside, it should be noted that there will still be no Constitutional Court, that the budget of the ISIE will decrease to 23 million dinars, a big drop from 192,469 million dinars in 2024, and that the budget of the Supreme Judicial Council will decrease from 2.207 million dinars to 1.576 million dinars.
The members of Parliament would have TND 43.193 million, the 2nd Chamber or NCRD TND 15.610 million. The Prime Ministry would have TND 271 million and the Presidency of the Republic TND 214.259 million.
TGV, Tunisair, Enfidha port: the forgotten budget items
The transport sector, key to economic development, has been the focus of more than one unannounced presidential visit to highlight its concerns, and more investment was expected from the Ministry of Transport, whose budget is expected to exceed TND 1.076 billion by 2025.
The report on the draft state budget for 2025 sets the budget for the transport ‘mission’ at TND 364.6 million.
In terms of investments and projects to be financed in 2025, it mentions SNCFT projects worth TND 54.6, mainly for the modernization of certain railway lines, such as line 6, which will link Tunis to Kasserine.
There is no mention of the purchase of new wagons or other equipment.
The Tunis Transport Company should have a budget of TND 20.2 million, including work on the metro network, including the TGM, and work on the Ezzahrouni, Bab Saadoun, Charguia and Bir El Kassaa warehouses.
The state budget for 2025 should allocate 149.9 million to Line D of the RFR. But also, and above all, TND 5.7 million for preparatory work on the Sfax metro-light. And TND 9.9 million for the maintenance of the vessels of the new Kerkennah transport company.
It should be noted that there is no investment project or budget, not even for studies or modifications to the rail network, for the TGV project linking the north and south of Tunisia, as discussed by Kais Saied with Kamel Madouri on September 17, 2024.
There is also no mention of Tunisair in this draft state budget for 2025. The Ministry of Finance document we obtained does not even mention the aviation sector in its investment plans. Nor, for that matter, any investment project for the deep-water port of Enfidha.
