Preserving external financial balances and the balance of payments is one of the fundamental pillars of Tunisia’s 2026 development action plan.
In an international environment marked by volatility and uncertainty, particularly regarding price fluctuations in global markets, the Tunisian state is giving top priority to the stability of its foreign exchange reserves and to containing the current account deficit in order to ensure economic sustainability.
The balance of payments represents the net balance of external flows over a given period. It includes the results of foreign trade transactions, external investment flows, and all other financial operations with the rest of the world, such as remittances and other transfers.
More specifically, the balance of payments measures transactions between residents and non-residents—that is, between economic actors (banks, businesses, households, and public administrations) operating within the national territory and those operating abroad. It covers both current transactions and financial transactions.
According to the 2026 Economic Balance document, economic forecasts point to a qualitative leap in national exports. Exports of goods and services are expected to increase by 4.6% at current prices, compared with 3.8% in 2025, driven by a recovery in external demand.
The phosphate sector and its derivatives are set to lead exports, with projected growth of 19%, supported by a recovery in domestic production and rising global demand for chemical fertilizers.
Agri-food sector expected to grow by 5.7%
The development model also relies on agriculture and the agri-food sector, which is expected to record growth of 5.7%, thanks to the quality of Tunisian products—particularly olive oil, dates, and citrus fruits and an expansion strategy targeting new markets in Asia and Africa.
On the other hand, imports of goods and services are expected to rise by 4.5% in 2026. This increase reflects the need to accelerate investment projects, with imports of capital goods projected to grow by 4.3%.
Energy imports are also expected to increase by 1.9% due to changes in domestic consumption, calling for prudent policies to maintain financial balance.
Services and current transfers continue to play a key role as major sources of foreign currency. Tourism revenues are expected to maintain their upward trend, growing by 5.2%, alongside remittances from Tunisians abroad, which are projected to rise by more than 6.4%.
These inflows directly contribute to maintaining adequate levels of foreign exchange reserves and shielding the economy from external shocks.
Despite these positive indicators, forecasts show that the current account deficit is expected to reach 3.6% of GDP in 2026.
In response, the government is expected to seek external financing on preferential terms, particularly in light of the increase in external debt repayment obligations during the year.
