After the crises of the past, the economies of many African countries are clearly heading for growth, while political and economic stability has increased in the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, according to a new study by Commerzbank, the second largest bank for private and corporate customers in Germany.
“Medium-term growth potential in sub-Saharan Africa ought to be about six per cent per annum in the years ahead,” said the study, which was released to PANA here.
It said countries which manage to attract foreign investors could actually see even higher growth, since investments like these frequently initiate or boost growth momentum.
With an economic growth forecast of 5.4 per cent for 2012, the region is now already ranking directly behind front-runner Asia.
The commodity boom and the turnaround to stability-oriented economic policy have increased the crisis-resistance of many countries in this region.
Some of the states have thus already recorded notable surpluses in current account and government budget, the study shows.
The prerequisites for further economic growth, according to the study, are a stable political framework and a large population which allow higher economies of scale with fixed investment costs, plus good availability of commodities.
Countries which meet these criteria include in particular Nigeria, Ghana, Angola and Mozambique.
“The greatest challenge for sub-Saharan Africa is the demographic development. The labour force potential, which is growing strongly because of the high population growth, can only be absorbed by the creation of additional jobs,” said Florian Witt, head of the Africa department in Commerzbank’s corporate banking.
