The Tunisian economy is projected to recover modestly by just 2.5 per cent in 2021, before
picking up to 3.3 per cent in 2022, according to the Regional Economic Prospects November 2021 released by European Bank for Reconstruction and Development Thursday.
This development reflects a rebound in the economic growth in the region.
This reflects the rebound in manufacturing industries driven by exports. However, the tourism and transportation sectors remain affected by COVID-19-related restrictions, and agriculture has seen a decline after a record year in 2020. Inflation has declined in recent years.
Inflation has declined but remains relatively high, at 5.5% y/y in the first three quarters of 2021, due to higher food prices and lower subsidies.
The EBRD report says that economic recovery will depend on the pace of implementing reforms, which was held back by the lack of political consensus and limited ambition to overhaul public administration and state-owned enterprises.
The EBRD is raising its growth forecast for the southern and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin (SEMED region) to 4.2% for 2021.
According to the report, most of the region’s economies are experiencing a rebound in economic activity, driven primarily by renewed momentum in the agriculture and telecommunications sectors, as well as limited increases in tourism and exports.
Future economic recovery will depend on the strength of the global recovery, progress in rolling out immunization, policy developments, and the implementation of business environment reforms.
Among the key measures likely to attract investors, the EBRD report cites strengthening competition, improving governance, fighting corruption, expanding digitization, and promoting inclusion.
In 2022, output growth in the SEMED region is expected to be 4.4%, reflecting the strong expansion of economic activity, particularly in Egypt and Morocco.
