The African Development Bank (AfDB) projects economic growth of 1.9% in Tunisia in 2025, followed by 2.3% in 2026, according to its latest estimates.
In its new country report, the institution explains that this moderate progress will be driven primarily by an expected recovery in agriculture and manufacturing.
The AfDB notes that in 2024, Tunisia’s growth reached 1.4%, after a near-stagnation at 0.4% in 2023. This uptick in activity was supported by the strong performance of the agricultural sector (+12.1%), certain branches of industry, and, to a lesser extent, services.
Regarding prices, the AfDB anticipates a continued decline in inflation, expected to reach 6.4% in 2025 and 6.1% in 2026.
AfDB calls for structural reforms
At the same time, the AfDB expects a gradual reduction in the budget deficit, which would decrease from 5.3% of GDP in 2025 to 4.9% in 2026.
However, the current account deficit is expected to widen, reaching 2.2% of GDP in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026, mainly due to an anticipated increase in imports.
Despite these adjustments, the AfDB believes Tunisia’s economic outlook remains fragile.
The institution warns of an uncertain international environment, marked by persistent trade tensions, regional geopolitical conflicts, and supply chain volatility. These factors could weaken external demand, increase the cost of imports, and weigh on the country’s competitiveness.
To support growth, the Bank recommends pursuing a monetary policy more conducive to productive investment, intensifying fiscal reforms, simplifying the business regulatory framework, and enhancing attractiveness for strategic investments. It also calls for sustainable management of natural resources and better integration of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), particularly through the formalization of the informal economy.
