Tunisia received $1.173 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in 2025, according to the UNCTAD World Investment Report 2026. While Tunisian authorities have presented the figure as evidence of a major breakthrough, a comparison with international data and past statistics suggests the performance is less spectacular than official messaging implies.
Same figure, different currencies
To begin with, there is no discrepancy between the $1.173 billion reported by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) and the TND 3.5065 billion announced by the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT). At the average 2025 exchange rate of roughly three dinars to the U.S. dollar, the two figures represent the same amount.
The difference lies not in the value itself, but in how it is measured and presented.
A stronger dinar inflated dollar growth
The Foreign Investment Promotion Agency (FIPA) and the Central Bank reported 30.1% FDI growth in 2025, measured in Tunisian dinars.
UNCTAD, however, calculated 35.3% growth, measured in U.S. dollars.
The five-percentage-point gap is entirely attributable to exchange-rate movements. According to the Central Bank’s 2025 annual report, the Tunisian dinar appreciated by 3.8% against the U.S. dollar during the year.
As a result, the same amount of investment expressed in dinars translated into more dollars than the previous year. Adjusting UNCTAD’s 35.3% dollar-based growth for the 3.8% appreciation brings the increase back to roughly 30.3% in dinars, almost identical to the official figure.
In other words, the higher growth rate in dollar terms reflects currency movements rather than additional investment.
Changing comparison bases
Another issue concerns the baseline used to calculate growth.
The official 30.1% increase implies that Tunisia received approximately TND 2.695 billion in FDI in 2024.
However, in its February 2025 report, FIPA itself had estimated 2024 FDI at TND 2.9102 billion. Using that figure as the comparison base, 2025 FDI would represent growth of only 20.5%.
A third 2024 estimate, TND 2.742 billion, has also circulated in 2026, which would imply growth of 27.9%.
While such differences may stem from legitimate revisions to balance-of-payments statistics, common practice at central banks, they raise questions about consistency and would benefit from further clarification.
Broader investment totals can create a larger impression
The scope of the figures also changes across official communications.
Some announcements refer solely to the TND 3.5065 billion in foreign direct investment, while others cite TND 3.572 billion, a figure that includes TND 65.6 million in portfolio investment.
Although the arithmetic is correct, combining the two categories without explicitly highlighting the distinction may exaggerate the perceived scale of productive investment.
Unlike FDI, portfolio investments are generally more volatile and do not necessarily create factories, long-term assets, or permanent jobs.
Manufacturing remains the backbone
Despite these statistical nuances, Tunisia’s investment fundamentals remained relatively solid in 2025.
Manufacturing industries accounted for more than 60% of total FDI inflows, while the energy sector attracted TND 571 million, or 16.3% of total FDI.
Most investment came from companies already operating in Tunisia rather than new investors. Expansion projects totaled 819, representing TND 2.579 billion, compared with just 102 new investment projects worth TND 357 million.
By the end of 2025, Tunisia hosted around 4,211 foreign-owned companies, excluding the energy sector, while foreign investment contributed to the creation of 14,085 jobs.
Regional comparison tempers the picture
The regional comparison places Tunisia’s performance into perspective.
According to UNCTAD data, Tunisia’s $1.173 billion in FDI represented:
- Around 35% of Morocco’s $3.338 billion.
- Barely 8% of Egypt’s $15.453 billion.
- More than Libya’s $828 million.
- Slightly below Algeria’s $1.53 billion.
Tunisia’s cumulative FDI stock since 2000 reached $44.442 billion, remaining modest compared with several regional peers.
A genuine rebound, but not a transformation
Overall, Tunisia’s 2025 FDI rebound is genuine in absolute terms but appears less remarkable once exchange-rate effects, changing statistical baselines, and regional comparisons are taken into account.
The increase was driven largely by the expansion of existing foreign investors rather than a surge in new entrants, while a stronger dinar amplified growth measured in U.S. dollars.
For 2026, FIPA is targeting TND 4 billion in foreign direct investment. The objective appears achievable, but analysts argue that future performance should be assessed using constant currencies and consistent statistical methodologies to provide a clearer picture of Tunisia’s investment trajectory.
