African governments are facing unprecedented pressure on their external debt, with repayments expected to exceed $90 billion this year.
This is the finding of the latest report from Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings on the continent’s sovereign outlook. According to the analysis, African states’ external debt payments are now more than three times higher than in 2012.
The agency warns of the growing fragility of African public finances, as upcoming hard currency debt repayments due in 2026 could intensify pressure on external reserves and deepen refinancing risks. “Government external debt repayments are approaching a peak,” the report highlights.
The reasons are structural: historically high debt combined with limited and concentrated revenue bases keeps countries in a vulnerable position. External risks, exchange rate fluctuations, rising global interest rates, and dependence on international markets—have also intensified, amplifying threats to economic stability.
The report also highlights that Egypt accounts for nearly one-third of this year’s repayments, with $27 billion due in principal, followed by Angola, South Africa, and Nigeria, which also weigh heavily on the total payment amount.
According to S&P, the average credit rating for African sovereigns has reached its highest level since the end of 2020. However, this primarily reflects a stabilization of key credit indicators rather than a substantial improvement.
The agency’s analysts note that structural adjustments aimed at reducing the debt burden generally require longer timelines and that external vulnerability persists.
On the growth front, the agency anticipates relative economic stability: average real GDP growth is expected to remain at 4.5% in 2026, while budget deficits should moderately narrow to 3.5% of GDP. Conversely, public debt will remain high, averaging around 61% of GDP.
Faced with this growing repayment burden, several African governments are now adopting active liability management strategies: debt buybacks, swaps, or maturity extensions are being utilized to reduce refinancing risks and smooth the debt burden over the medium term.
