Tunisia is on track to become the world’s second-largest olive oil producer in the 2025-2026 season.
Harvest estimates range from 380,000 to 400,000 tons, with some sector projections reaching 500,000 tons, potentially overtaking Italy and placing Tunisia just behind Spain, according to the Financial Times.
The surge is driven by favorable rainfall in Tunisia, boosting production, while major Mediterranean competitors have faced droughts and climate stress in recent years.
High international prices, around $10,000 per ton, have also increased demand for Tunisian oil amid uncertain European supply.
Tunisia’s olive sector is structurally strong, covering 2 million hectares with nearly 107 million olive trees, allowing the country to capitalize quickly during productive years.
Tunisian oil challenges Italian producers
Tunisian olive oil is both a boon and a threat to the Italian industry. Critics in Italy argue that mass imports of cheap Tunisian oil are pushing down prices, forcing many companies to sell at a loss.
According to Coldiretti (reported in Financial Times and 24ore.com), imports from Tunisia rose about 40% in the first ten months of 2025, coinciding with the start of the Italian harvest.
Tunisian oil enters Italy at around €3.50 per kilo, a price point that makes competition difficult for many domestic producers. Italy’s olive industry defends this, citing a structural production deficit and noting that falling prices also reflect a Mediterranean production rebound after two dry years.
Italy remains heavily reliant on foreign oil: over 500,000 tons are expected to enter the EU in 2025, versus a domestic production of about 300,000 tons.
Tunisia is pushing to double its EU tariff-free olive oil quota to 100,000 tons, pending approval from EU member states, which face mounting pressure from their agricultural sectors, especially after the January Mercosur agreement.
The Financial Times emphasizes that Tunisia could become the world’s second-largest olive oil producer this season, trailing only Spain and surpassing Italy, with up to 400,000 tons expected.
