The Arab Institute of Business Leaders (IACE) has warned about risks facing the Tunisian economy due to the war in the Middle East, urging authorities to implement short- and medium-term mitigation measures to strengthen national resilience against these repercussions.
In its report titled “War in the Middle East: Challenges and Impacts on the Tunisian Economy,” published on March 19, the IACE stressed that the crisis could affect several dimensions of the economy, including public finances, the balance of payments, inflation, and growth, in a context where Tunisia remains heavily dependent on energy imports.
In an international environment marked by high uncertainty, Tunisia is among the economies most exposed to external shocks, particularly due to its reliance on energy imports.
The report recalls that domestic production covers only around 35% of demand, and that any sustained increase in hydrocarbon prices or disruption in supply flows directly impacts macroeconomic balances.
According to the IACE, the first transmission channel of impact concerns public finances. The state budget remains particularly sensitive to energy price fluctuations, with energy subsidies already accounting for nearly 3.3% of GDP.
Under these conditions, each $1 increase in the price of a barrel of oil could generate an estimated additional cost of TND 164 million.
This risk is even more significant as the 2026 finance law was based on an oil price of around $63 per barrel, a level that could be exceeded if tensions persist.
