The World Bank has held its 2026 growth projection for Tunisia’s economy at 2.5%, unchanged from its January estimates, while revising downward its outlook for 2027, according to the institution’s latest *Global Economic Prospects report.
Tunisia’s growth is now expected to ease slightly to 2.3% in both 2027 and 2028. This represents a modest upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from January’s forecast, which had predicted 2.2% growth for 2027.
Global growth marked down for 2026
On a global scale, the World Bank has lowered its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5%, down from the 2.6% anticipated in January. However, global growth for 2025 came in at a stronger-than-expected 2.9%, beating earlier estimates by 0.2 percentage points.
Despite this outperformance, the institution warns that medium-term prospects remain fragile. It projects a slight recovery in global activity to 2.8% in both 2027 and 2028.
In a downside scenario marked by major energy supply disruptions and rising financial market tensions, global growth could slow to as low as 1.3% – a level close to the weakest episodes seen since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Oil Prices: The main factor behind dimming prospects
The World Bank’s baseline scenario assumes an average Brent crude price of $94 per barrel this year – a 36% jump from 2025. This scenario also assumes that the most severe energy supply disruptions will ease by the end of July, allowing global inflation to stabilize around 4%.
But the lender warns of far worse trajectories. If energy supply tensions persist and keep oil prices at an average of $115 per barrel, global growth could slow to 2.1% this year, with headline inflation rising to 4.4% due to sustained energy cost increases.
In an even more degraded scenario, featuring a prolonged energy shock, deteriorating global financial conditions, and sharp market instability that erodes investor and consumer confidence – world growth could collapse to just 1.3%.
Sharp slowdown in MENA region
The World Bank highlights that the effects of the Middle East war continue to weigh asymmetrically on regional economies, severely denting short-term growth prospects even as a medium-term recovery is anticipated.
The institution has sharply lowered its growth forecast for the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. GDP expansion is now expected at just 1.6% in 2026, a downward revision of 2.7 percentage points, following an estimated 4% growth in 2025. The Bank expects a rebound to 5% in 2027 if geopolitical and economic conditions improve.
