Tunisia’s trade deficit widened sharply during the first half of 2026, reaching TND 12.57 billion (12,569.4 million dinars), an increase of TND 2.67 billion compared with the same period last year.
Authorities have blamed the deterioration on “non-essential” imports, which have been subject to stricter financing requirements since March. However, the data tell a different story: the bulk of the widening deficit stems from government purchases.
Tunisia’s exports have continued to perform well. They rose 9.0% during the first six months of 2026 to TND 34.65 billion. Imports, however, grew even faster, increasing 13.3% to TND 47.21 billion.
As a result, the export-to-import coverage ratio fell from 76.2% to 73.4%, after standing at 79.9% in the first half of 2024, a decline of more than six percentage points over two years.
Public imports drive the deficit
The deterioration can be traced primarily to three categories: energy, grain and sugar. Combined imports of these products rose from TND 8.31 billion to TND 11.39 billion, an increase of TND 3.08 billion.
These three categories alone accounted for 55.5% of the total increase in imports and 115% of the widening trade deficit. In other words, excluding energy, grain and sugar, Tunisia’s trade balance would have improved by roughly TND 400 million.
The common denominator is that these imports are largely carried out by the state or public entities, including state-owned energy companies, the Grain Office, and, for most sugar imports, the Trade Office.
Sugar imports surge after shortages
Sugar provides the clearest example of the trend.
The value of sugar imports increased 4.6-fold, from TND 167.3 million to TND 761.8 million, while import volumes nearly quadrupled from 107,430 tons to 424,737 tons.
The average price per kilogram rose only modestly, from TND 1.56 to TND 1.79, indicating that the increase was driven by volumes rather than prices.
Historical data suggest a major inventory rebuilding effort. Sugar imports totaled 123,408 tons in the first half of 2024 before falling to 107,430 tons in 2025, a year marked by shortages.
The sharp increase in 2026 appears to reflect a large-scale replenishment of stocks after a period of under-supply. Imports of nearly 425,000 tons in just six months are estimated to be close to Tunisia’s annual domestic consumption.
Energy remains the largest burden
Energy continues to represent the biggest drag on the trade balance.
Energy imports rose 33.2% to TND 8.78 billion, driven by a 24.7% increase in import volumes.
The country’s energy trade deficit alone reached TND 7.05 billion, representing 56% of the overall trade deficit.
Grain imports also increased, rising 18.8% in value, with import volumes up 30.6%, while average unit prices declined.
Government targets “non-essential” imports
Despite these figures, the government’s response has focused elsewhere.
Under Central Bank of Tunisia Circular No. 2026-04, issued on March 26, 2026, importers of products classified as non-priority must now finance imports entirely with their own funds. The list includes chocolate, biscuits, exotic fruits, cosmetics, toothpaste, furniture, household appliances and cars.
The measure follows the government’s 2018 list of 604 restricted products.
Three months after the circular took effect, the results appear mixed. A reconstructed group of 21 customs chapters classified as “non-essential” imports increased 15.1% during the first half of 2026 to TND 5.93 billion, outpacing overall import growth. Compared with the first half of 2024, these imports have increased 41.7%.
In foreign currency terms, this group represented roughly €1.75 billion in imports over six months.
Car imports continue rising
Several categories targeted by the new restrictions continued to grow.
Car imports, the primary focus of the new rules, increased 15.8% to TND 3.71 billion, and are 60.5% higher than in the first half of 2024, despite virtually unchanged import volumes. The higher bill reflects a shift toward more expensive vehicles rather than greater quantities.
Tobacco imports rose 17.0% to TND 315.2 million. Imports of prepared fish products, including tuna and smoked fish, surged 173.1%. Biscuit imports increased 18.5%, ceramics 31.2%, and jewelry 35.2%.
Only perfumes and cosmetics remained broadly unchanged at TND 272.8 million.
The article notes that it is still too early to judge the effectiveness of the Central Bank circular because first-half data do not distinguish between imports made before and after March 26, and some of the increase may reflect advance purchases ahead of the new financing rules. Monthly data would be needed for a definitive assessment.
Export sector continues to perform
The figures also show that non-essential imports contributed only TND 776.9 million to the increase in imports, equivalent to 14% of the total rise, while public-sector imports accounted for roughly four times as much.
Meanwhile, Tunisia’s export industries continued to post solid growth.
Electrical industries, led by cable manufacturing, generated an additional TND 1.15 billion in exports, reaching TND 10.18 billion, or 29.4% of total exports.
Olive oil exports surged 40.6% to TND 3.61 billion, supported by a 53.5% increase in export volumes, which more than offset a decline in the average export price from TND 11.33 to TND 10.37 per kilogram.
The textile, clothing and leather sector, however, declined 3.8%, a worrying sign for Tunisia’s largest industrial employer.
A structural challenge
The data suggest that Tunisia’s trade deficit is increasingly driven not by discretionary consumer imports, but by structural public-sector needs: imported energy, grain purchases and emergency rebuilding of strategic stocks.
Restricting financing for non-essential imports may be justified as a policy tool. However, as long as the government does not address the structural drivers of its own import bill, the officially designated culprit may continue to distract from the real source of the country’s widening trade deficit.
| Le rapport classe toutefois la trajectoire de la Tunisie dans la catégorie ” Warning Signs ” (” signaux d’alerte “). Cette catégorie désigne les pays dont les progrès récents demeurent fragiles ou insuffisamment consolidés, laissant apparatre des risques de ralentissement, voire de recul, si les réformes engagées ne sont pas poursuivies ou renforcées. |
| Parmi les évolutions les plus marquantes relevées par le rapport, la Tunisie enregistre la deuxième plus forte progression du continent dans l’indicateur relatif aux procédures de passation des marchés publics, avec un gain de 45,6 points en dix ans, derrière les Seychelles, qui affichent la meilleure performance en matière de mécanismes de lutte contre la corruption (+50 points). |
| Le Rwanda conserve sa place de pays africain le plus performant en matière de lutte contre la corruption, qu’il occupe sans interruption depuis 2016. En 2025, il affiche un score de 76,6 points, en progression de 2,6 points sur dix ans. |
| Les Seychelles enregistrent toutefois la progression la plus spectaculaire du continent. Leur score a bondi de 26,3 points en une décennie pour atteindre également 76,6 points en 2025. Grâce à un gain de 12 places au classement, l’archipel de l’océan Indien rejoint ainsi le Rwanda en tête du classement africain. |
| Avec un score de 65,7 points, l’&ile Maurice complète le podium, devant le Sénégal (64 points), le Bénin (58,7), le Botswana (57,8), la Namibie (57,6), le Cap-Vert (56,1), la Tunisie (55,9) et le Burkina Faso (55,6), qui composent le Top 10 africain. |
| A l’autre extrémité du classement, le Soudan du Sud ferme la marche avec seulement 6,9 points en 2025. |
