Tunisia’s external balance of payments data, compiled according to the IMF’s sixth edition of the Balance of Payments Manual (BPM6), presents a mixed picture. The current account deficit narrowed slightly during the first four months of 2026, falling to TND 2.731 billion from TND 2.957 billion a year earlier.
However, this improvement was driven almost entirely by stronger services exports, remittances from Tunisians abroad, and lower interest payments, while the trade deficit in goods continued to widen.
Behind these flows, currency movements, a U.S. dollar that weakened by 7.4% against the Tunisian dinar and a strengthening euro, quietly reshaped the country’s external accounts.
An apparently improving current account that masks underlying weakness
The figures are clear. Tunisia’s current account balance (credits minus debits) stood at -TND 12.315 billion in 2022, the year of the energy and grain price shock, before narrowing sharply to -TND 2.484 billion in 2023 and -TND 2.576 billion in 2024.
The trend reversed in 2025, when the deficit widened to -TND 4.350 billion, a deterioration of 69% year-on-year. During the first four months of 2026, however, the deficit narrowed from -TND 2.957 billion to -TND 2.731 billion, an improvement of TND 226 million, or 7.6%.
Yet the composition of this improvement tells a different story. The goods trade deficit (FOB basis) widened by TND 518 million, increasing from -TND 11.070 billion to -TND 11.588 billion.
The improvement instead came from other components:
The travel surplus rose from TND 1.195 billion to TND 1.326 billion.
Net compensation of employees (remittances) increased by TND 330 million to TND 3.691 billion.
Investment income payments declined from TND 2.059 billion to TND 1.820 billion.
In other words, Tunisia is not improving its trade balance; it is increasingly relying on its services sector and its diaspora.
A weak dollar: A statistical windfall that conceals a real deterioration
The average interbank exchange rate of the U.S. dollar fell from 3.1262 dinars during the first four months of 2025 to 2.8956 dinars over the same period in 2026, a depreciation of 7.4%.
For a country whose strategic imports, particularly energy and grain, are largely priced in dollars, this should have mechanically reduced the import bill in dinar terms.
Instead, imports of goods increased from TND 19.966 billion to TND 21.312 billion, a rise of 6.7% in local currency.
Expressed in U.S. dollars, the picture is even more striking. Goods imports climbed from roughly $6.39 billion to $7.36 billion, an increase of 15.2%.
This means that the weaker dollar absorbed nearly half of a genuine import shock, whether driven by higher volumes or higher prices. Without the depreciation of the U.S. currency, Tunisia’s current account deficit would have widened instead of narrowing.
The apparent improvement therefore reflects, in part, an external and reversible factor—the exchange rate, rather than a structural adjustment in import demand.
The weaker dollar did, however, provide tangible relief on debt servicing costs. Interest payments on long-term external borrowing fell from TND 705.6 million to TND 505.8 million, a decline of 28.3%, reflecting both exchange-rate effects and the country’s debt repayment profile following major repayments in 2025.
A strong euro boosts tourism and diaspora remittances
Against the euro, the dinar followed the opposite trend.
The European currency strengthened steadily, rising from 3.2611 dinars in 2022 to 3.3839 dinars during the first four months of 2026.
This controlled depreciation of the dinar against the currency of Tunisia’s largest trading partner improved the price competitiveness of the country’s services sector.
Tourism revenues increased from TND 1.959 billion to TND 2.038 billion, up 4.1% despite the low season, while residents’ travel spending abroad declined slightly from TND 1.080 billion to TND 1.053 billion, as the stronger euro made overseas travel more expensive.
As a result, the travel surplus expanded by TND 130 million.
The impact was even more pronounced on workers’ remittances, most of which originate from Tunisians living in the euro area.
Receipts surged from TND 3.444 billion to TND 3.765 billion, an increase of 9.3%, partly due to the exchange-rate effect, with each euro transferred converting into more dinars.
At TND 3.765 billion in just four months, remittances now comfortably exceed tourism receipts and have effectively become Tunisia’s largest source of foreign currency after merchandise exports.
The financial account: A sharp turnaround in 2026
The most dramatic shift occurred in the financial account.
During the first four months of 2025, the net increase in liabilities was negative TND 2.058 billion, largely due to portfolio investment outflows of TND 3.185 billion, reflecting the repayment of the Eurobond that matured in early 2025.
That forced deleveraging was financed through a substantial drawdown in foreign exchange reserves, which fell by TND 4.659 billion during the period.
One year later, the picture reversed.
The net increase in liabilities returned to positive TND 2.778 billion, driven by:
Foreign direct investment rising from TND 907 million to TND 1.302 billion.
Net loans increasing from TND 221 million to TND 1.466 billion.
Portfolio investment remaining broadly neutral at TND 11 million, with no major bond maturity during the period.
Freed from the burden of large debt repayments, Tunisia was able to modestly rebuild its foreign exchange reserves, which increased by TND 318 million, compared with a TND 4.659 billion decline a year earlier.
However, this turnaround should be interpreted with caution.
It reflects less a return of investor confidence than the simple absence of major debt maturities, combined with new loan financing whose bilateral or multilateral sources are not specified in the data.
Questions surrounding the refinancing of future bond maturities therefore remain unresolved, and the respite enjoyed in 2026 may prove to be only temporary.
An external balance sustained by temporary factors
The first four months of 2026 portray an external balance supported by a combination of favorable—but fragile—factors: a weaker dollar reducing the import bill in dinar terms;
a stronger euro boosting tourism revenues and remittances and a relatively light external debt repayment schedule.
Yet the core structural issue remains unchanged.
Tunisia’s goods trade deficit reached TND 11.587.7 billion in just four months, widening by 4.7% year-on-year.
Should the U.S. dollar strengthen again, much of the statistical improvement would quickly disappear with it.
