The Central Bank of Tunisia’s Executive Board decided, during its meeting held on June 20, 2024, to keep the BCT’s key rate unchanged at 8%, it said in a press release.
The Board considered that “the risks associated with the future path of inflation call for caution and patience, and that it is important to continue to support the process of convergence of inflation towards sustainable levels.”
It also revealed that the upside risks to inflation “remain active in the short and medium term and could derive, notably, from the upsurge in global commodity and energy prices against a backdrop of heightened geopolitical tensions, water stress, and the state of public finances, especially in the absence of external resources’ harnessing.”
The inflation rate stabilised at 7.2% (year-on-year) in May 2024, compared with 9.6% a year earlier, thanks to a relative easing in core inflation “excluding fresh food and products at regulated prices,” which stood at 7.3% in May, compared with 7.5% the previous month, despite the acceleration in the rate of increase in fresh food prices (10.8% in May compared with 9.7% in April 2024).
The BCT also considered that “the latest available economic indicators point to a gradual recovery in activity during the second quarter of 2024, which will be supported by the pick-up in activity in the agricultural sector and the consolidation of activities in the services sector.”
Economic growth edged up by a moderate 0.2% (year-on-year) in the first quarter of 2024.
On the global front, the gradual easing in consumer price inflation has continued in recent months, albeit at a relatively slow pace, according to the Bank.
Recent international forecasts assume a slow convergence of inflation towards central bank targets, in line with upward pressure from global commodity and raw material prices.
“Despite some optimism in the markets about a general loosening of monetary policy, the prospects of persistent inflation would continue to weigh on the monetary policy stance of the main economies’ central banks,” the BCT further underlined.
