Financial analyst Bassem Ennaifer stated that the Central Bank of Tunisia’s (BCT) decision to keep its key interest rate unchanged aligns with the general trend followed by most central banks worldwide.
This comes in a context where inflationary risk is easing, but less significantly than expected.
Speaking on the radio program Expresso on Friday, August 1, 2025, he explained that rising geopolitical tensions, especially the reintroduction of tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump and the ongoing war in the Middle East, have contributed to the increase in oil prices, despite temporary drops.
This has directly impacted the prices of basic commodities and inflation rates globally. He added that this uncertain international climate is prompting central banks to act cautiously before adjusting monetary policies.
High trade deficit despite tourism and remittances.
Regarding Tunisia’s economic situation, Ennaifer noted that the key interest rate remains high compared to historical averages, even though it was maintained.
According to him, this reflects a cautious monetary stance due to weak economic indicators.
On the balance of payments, he pointed out a clear worsening of the trade deficit compared to 2024, reaching 9.9 billion dinar, an important and concerning figure.
However, he explained that this deficit is due to increased imports of raw and semi-processed materials for local industry.
He saw this as a positive sign reflecting the vitality of industrial activity and its potential to support future exports.
The economist also highlighted a relative improvement in tourism revenues and remittances from Tunisians abroad, which has helped ease some pressure on the balance of payments.
He stated: “Despite repaying several external debts, the first half of the year went smoothly, and so far, we can consider it a period of minimal damage.”
Dropping inflation feels invisible to the public
On inflation, Ennaifer said the rate has recorded a slight decline, but it remains imperceptible to citizens.
He attributed this to the continued rise in food prices, driven by an imbalance between supply and demand in the agricultural sector, as well as the high cost of imported basic goods like oil.
He stressed that although inflation is trending downward, this will remain barely noticeable in terms of purchasing power until issues in agricultural production are resolved and the cost of essential imports is reduced.
Tunisia’s inflation: Stable at 5.4%
According to a report by the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on the Consumer Price Index, Tunisia’s inflation rate remained stable at 5.4% in June 2025.
This overall stability is the result of two opposing trends: a sharp rise in prices in the “restaurants, cafés, and hotels” group (+11% vs. +10.8% in May) and a slowdown in food price increases (+6.4% vs. +6.7%).
Core inflation (excluding food and energy) also remained unchanged at 5.5%.
Prices of unregulated products rose by 6.5% year-on-year, compared to just 1.5% for price-controlled products.
Free-market food prices rose by 7.2%, while regulated food prices rose only 0.7%.
Food prices overall saw a 6.4% annual increase, mainly due to sharp hikes in fresh vegetables (+25.2%), fresh fruits (+20.4%), lamb (+19%), and fresh fish (+10.5%).
On the flip side, prices for cooking oils dropped by 22.7% and eggs by 4.7%.
Manufactured goods prices rose 5.3%, especially in clothing (+9.3%) and household cleaning products (+5%).
For services, prices rose 4.6% over the year, driven by restaurants, cafés, and hotels (+11%).
Month-over-month, the Consumer Price Index increased by 0.4% compared to May 2025.
This was due to rising clothing prices (+1.6%), hotel services (+5.1%), and to a lesser extent, food products (+0.1%).
More specifically, lamb and beef prices rose by 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively, while egg (-3.6%), poultry (-1.4%), and fresh fruit (-1.1%) prices dropped over the month.
