Ernst & Young Tunisia has just published the 11th edition of its annual business barometer. The survey was conducted between January and March 2026 among 278 executives from various sectors, ranging from industry and financial services to information and communication technologies (ICT).
The chosen subtitle, “Cautious Realism, Asserted Resilience,” aptly summarizes the prevailing mindset. It also unintentionally reflects the limits of an analysis that remains superficial regarding the structural transformation Tunisia has yet to initiate.
Optimism is improving, but without solid foundations
The most striking trend in this edition is the continuous improvement in perceptions of the political situation. In 2023, 88% of executives considered the political situation bad or rather bad. By 2026, that figure had fallen to 60%, a drop of 28 percentage points in three years.
On the economic and social front, the proportion of pessimists declined from 96% to 76% over the same period. These are significant developments, which the report presents with a degree of satisfaction.
However, they should be put into perspective. A more critical reading reveals that this renewed optimism is not based on any structural improvement in the Tunisian economy.
Gross domestic product (GDP) grew by only 2.5% in 2025, an insufficient level to absorb unemployment and finance public services.
Inflation did decline from 6% to 4.9%, but the trade deficit reached nearly 22 billion dinars and public debt exceeded 80% of GDP.
These vulnerabilities are mentioned in the report almost as footnotes, without drawing the analytical conclusions they require.
The improvement in business leaders’ morale appears more like a psychological adaptation to a deteriorated environment than a sign of genuine economic recovery.
Taxation becomes the top concern: an underestimated warning signal
For the first time since the barometer was launched, tax pressure has become executives’ number one concern, overtaking the deterioration of the economic situation.
This shift is far from insignificant. It reflects the impact of measures introduced by the 2026 Finance Law, notably the extension of mandatory electronic invoicing and the introduction of a wealth tax.
The report records this fact but refrains from analyzing its implications. Yet this shift deserves attention.
When taxation surpasses the economic environment as the main concern, it means businesses increasingly perceive the state less as a growth partner and more as an additional burden. The recurring top concerns over recent years, taxation, administrative efficiency and the economic environment, also demonstrate that the structural reforms expected by business leaders are still not materializing.
The barometer notes this every year using almost identical wording, while the situation remains unchanged.
Commercial performance improves, but inequalities persist by company size
Commercially, 52% of companies reported improved turnover in 2025, compared with 47% the previous year. This is genuine progress, driven mainly by financial services and certain manufacturing industries.
The report also honestly points out that smaller businesses remain the most exposed to the risk of disappearance.
This deserves stronger emphasis. When 48% of executives believe their business activity could be threatened within less than two years if conditions fail to improve, the notion of “asserted” resilience must be qualified.
Resilience is real among experienced large companies. It is far more fragile among SMEs, which nevertheless make up the core of Tunisia’s economic fabric.
Investments in survival mode
Investment intentions for 2026 confirm this interpretation. A majority of executives, 51%, plan to maintain their current investment levels, while only 31% intend to increase them.
Priority projects include cost reduction (35%), seeking international partnerships (25%), and strengthening equity capital (14%).
These are preservation strategies rather than development strategies. Companies are investing to endure, not to grow. The fact that diversification into new geographic markets has remained the main growth lever for three consecutive years reflects persistent distrust toward the Tunisian domestic market.
Artificial intelligence: much curiosity, little commitment
The section dedicated to artificial intelligence (AI) is perhaps the most revealing part of the report, in a positive sense. The figures speak for themselves. Only 10% of Tunisian companies have integrated AI in a structured way into their strategy, while 16% have operationally deployed it in certain processes.
By comparison, EY’s global survey shows that 72% of large companies worldwide have already adopted AI on a large scale. The gap is enormous.
The two main obstacles identified are the lack of internal skills (20%) and budget constraints (18%). These obstacles point to structural deficits that companies alone cannot solve: the absence of a national training policy for digital professions, the weakness of the innovation financing ecosystem, and the lack of a clear regulatory framework for AI.
On this last point, 73% of companies have no AI governance framework in place or remain at a simple reflection stage. This means that even companies experimenting with AI are doing so without ethical or organizational safeguards. That is hardly reassuring.
What the barometer does not say
Any honest reading of such a document requires acknowledging its methodological limitations. The sample of 278 respondents, mostly fully Tunisian companies (68%) and predominantly small structures (47% generate less than 50 million dinars in turnover), is not necessarily representative of the formal sector as a whole.
Moreover, the fact that the survey was conducted during the outbreak of a conflict in the Middle East, as the report itself notes, introduces a bias whose extent is impossible to measure.
More fundamentally, the EY barometer measures perceptions, not economic realities. Yet perceptions can differ significantly from reality. A business leader who has adapted to a difficult environment may perceive it as improved even if objective indicators have not actually confirmed such improvement.
The rise in optimism since 2023 may therefore partly reflect gradual adaptation to constraints rather than a genuine reversal of trends.
A useful tool — provided it is questioned
This barometer remains a valuable document. It is well-constructed, honest in its data, and consistently documents trends that few other sources aggregate.
But it would benefit from more systematically confronting perceptions with macroeconomic indicators, giving greater voice to SMEs, and asking more uncomfortable questions about the deep reasons why the same concerns recur edition after edition without the expected reforms materializing.
The resilience of Tunisian businesses is real. It should not serve as an alibi for stagnation.
