After remaining for months in a linear dynamic marked by narrow, decimal-level fluctuations, the inflation rate has just broken this pattern by settling at 4.9% in November 2025.
The National Institute of Statistics (INS) explained this “stability” by the accelerated increase in prices within the “Food” group (5.8% in November 2025 compared to 5.6% in October 2025) and within the “Housing, water, gas” group (3.5% in November 2025 compared to 3.4% in October 2025).
It is also due, according to the INS, to the slowdown in the pace of price increases in the “Restaurant, cafés and hotels” services group (6.2% in November 2025 compared to 7.5% in October 2025) and in the “Furniture and household goods” group (4.8% in November 2025 compared to 4.9% in October 2025).
According to INS data, the annual rise in food prices is mainly driven by increases in the prices of lamb meat (18.5%), fresh vegetables (15.9%), fresh fruit (11.5%), beef (10.4%), and fresh fish (10%). In contrast, the prices of edible oils dropped by 17.3%.
Manufactured Products Up 5%
As for manufactured goods, prices rose by 5%, due to higher prices for clothing and footwear (up 9.2%) and household cleaning products (up 5%).
For services, prices increased by 4% year-on-year, mainly explained by the rise in prices within the “restaurants, cafés and hotels” group (6.2%).
Regarding core inflation (excluding food and energy), it fell to 5% in November 2025, compared to 5.1% the previous month.
Prices of non-regulated (free) products rose by 6% year-on-year, while regulated product prices increased by 0.7%. Free food products increased by 6.5%, compared to 0.3% for regulated food products.
The INS also reported a slight consumer price increase of 0.1% in November 2025 compared to October 2025, driven by higher prices in the “Clothing and footwear” group (0.4%) and the “Recreation and culture” group (0.3%), while the “Food” group recorded a 0.3% decrease.
Inflation Outlook
Overall, inflation forecasts in Tunisia show a downward trend, with a projected average rate of around 5.3% for 2025 and 2026, aiming for price stabilization.
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects a slight rebound to 6.5% in 2026 after a decline to 6.1% in 2025.
Recent October/November 2025 figures show a slowdown to 4.9–5.2%, supported by government efforts to control costs through stable supply and stock management.
