Year after year, Russia establishes itself as the main wheat supplier to North African countries. According to the latest data published by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), it is expected to supply nearly 50% of total wheat imports in the region in 2024/2025.
In figures, this represents more than 13.5 million tons, nearly double the volumes exported by European Union countries, which now account for only 25% of the North African market.
Russian dominance is particularly marked in Egypt, where it now covers nearly 70% of import needs, or more than 7 million tons per year. And it reaches a near-monopoly in Libya.
In Tunisia, Russian wheat exports jumped by 50% during the commercial season that ended in June 2024, according to USDA figures. The country imported more than 412,000 tons of Russian wheat, compared to about 275,000 tons last year.
The same goes for Morocco, where Russian exports doubled in one year, with more than 800,000 tons delivered in 2024. Last August, Russia even became, for the first time, the main wheat supplier to the kingdom, dethroning France.
If Russia manages to nibble away so much market share in North Africa, it is first thanks to a winning equation: ultra-competitive prices, massive supply, and formidably effective grain diplomacy.
But behind this rise in power of Russia, the objective is to strengthen its economic and political presence in a region highly important for its food diplomacy.
France, long the region’s leading supplier, sees its grip crumbling. And this is due to one of the weakest harvests in recent decades, which forced it to reduce its shipments to Morocco and Algeria.
Ukraine, for its part, is making a remarkable comeback after the halt caused by the Russian invasion in 2022. Its exports to North Africa are recovering sharply. Algeria has even become its third export market, with volumes nearly tripled in one year.
Deliveries to Tunisia have also increased by more than 50%, an unexpected rebound after two years of near-absence.
According to projections for the 2025/2026 season, the region’s imports are expected to reach a record 32.2 million tons.
