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Tunisia: 14% of GDP went up in smoke because of democratic transition

The cost of economic transition, two years after the revolution, has reached 14% of GDP, i.e. a loss of 7.5% growth in 2012 and 6.5% in 2011, Mustapha Kamel Nabli, former Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) said.

This cost is extremely high compared to what is expected, he said, during a panel discussion on “Tunisia two years after the Revolution, Review and Prospects”, held by the Association of Tunisian economists (ASECTU).

These losses are mainly due to growing social disruption and decline in growth sectors affected, such as mining and Phosphates, oil extraction, tourism and transportation (-17.3% in 2011).

These sectors, which account, according to Nabli, for 19% of the GDP, experienced a modest recovery of 5.5% in 2012.

For the remaining sectors (agriculture, communication, services …), which represent 81% of GDP, he said that they continued to grow in 2011 (+2.3%) and 2012 (3.1%), thanks to the growth of consumer demand.

The budget deficit reached in 2012, 8.4% excluding grants, privatization and confiscation, while official figures, according to the former Governor of the BCT, show a rate of 6.67%. This rate (6.67%) is calculated excluding grants and privatization, while incorporating confiscation revenues, he indicated.

With regard to employment, the former governor of the Central Bank said that out of the 85,000 jobs created in 2012, 40,000 were in the informal sector.


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