The listed Tunisian banking sector ended fiscal year 2025 on a mixed note: stronger liquidity and solvency fundamentals, overall profitability broadly preserved, but a profound transformation of the business model.
In a constrained macroeconomic environment, marked by a gradual monetary easing by the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), banks opted for caution, at the cost of moderate commercial growth.
Robust deposit collection despite monetary easing
The first notable development is the strength of deposit collection. Bank deposits rose by 7.5% to reach 106.7 billion dinars, despite two successive cuts in the key interest rate totaling 100 basis points in 2025.
The money market rate (MMR) and the minimum savings remuneration rate (TRE) each fell by 50 basis points over the year, an environment theoretically less favorable to deposit attractiveness.
Yet savings continued to flow in. Time deposits recorded the strongest increase (+12.2% to 31.9 billion dinars), reflecting a growing preference among households and businesses for secure investments amid economic uncertainty.
This performance confirms the banking sector’s ability to mobilize domestic resources even in a less accommodative environment.
Public banks particularly outperformed in deposit collection (+10.2%), compared with +6.1% for listed private firms, reinforcing their central role in national financial intermediation.
Sluggish lending and balance-sheet prudence
Conversely, lending activity remains structurally weak. Outstanding loans grew by only 1.8% to 86 billion dinars, a pace higher than in 2024 (+0.8%) but still far below historical standards.
Several factors explain this sluggishness: a business climate unfavorable to private investment, a monetary policy that remained restrictive for much of the year, and above all the anticipation of future prudential requirements (Basel III, IFRS). Banks clearly chose to rein in credit production to improve balance-sheet metrics.
This strategy is reflected in the loan-to-deposit ratio, which fell to 80.6%, its lowest level on record. After 122% in 2019, then 101.4% in 2023 and 96.2% in 2024, the downward trajectory has been confirmed.
The sector now prioritizes liquidity and solvency over credit expansion.
Excess resources were largely channeled into domestic government financing through increased subscriptions to Treasury bonds (BTA, BTC) and national loans, deepening reliance on sovereign-related income.
A profound shift in Net Banking Income
Aggregate Net Banking Income (NBI) of listed banks reached 7,290 million dinars, up a modest 4.3%. However, behind this apparent growth lies a historic reshaping of revenue composition.
The interest margin, the sector’s traditional engine, fell sharply by 18.5% (-583 million dinars). It gave way to market activities, which became the leading contributor to NBI, surging by 32.4% (+806 million dinars). Their share rose from 35.4% in 2024 to 45.4% in 2025.
This shift is driven by the expansion of bond portfolios (+23.4%) and banks’ increased participation in budget financing. By contrast, fee income stagnated (+1.1%), weighed down by regulatory caps on banking fees and the limited penetration of digital services.
The Tunisian banking model is thus evolving toward greater dependence on market income in a context of weak lending to the real economy.
Public vs. private banks: divergent dynamics
Trends differ across segments. Public banks recorded an overall 1.1% decline in loan outstanding, while private banks posted 3.8% growth, demonstrating better adaptability to the new prudential framework.
BNA retained its position as the leading credit provider with a 16.8% market share and 7.4% growth in outstanding loans. Its solvency ratios comfortably exceed regulatory requirements; however, its non-performing loan ratio (21.15%) remains a point of concern.
On the private side, some banks, such as UBCI, showed notable commercial momentum, highlighting the heterogeneity of sector performance.
Persistent pressure on efficiency
While revenues rose moderately, operating expenses increased more rapidly (+7.3%), intensifying pressure on productivity. The cost-to-income ratio reached 48%, its highest level since 2019.
Since 2020, operating costs have grown at an average annual rate of 9.2%, outpacing NBI growth. This trend underscores structural challenges in cost control and operational optimization.
Some banks have nonetheless managed to contain the deterioration, notably BT, which retains the best sector ratio, as well as BNA and STB, which improved their cost-to-income ratios in 2025.
Preserved profitability and attractive valuation
Despite these pressures, overall profitability remains resilient. Aggregate profits are expected to rise by 5.2% to reach 1.58 billion dinars in 2025, supported by an anticipated decline in the cost of risk (-6.8% estimated).
On the stock market, the banking index is up 9.65% year-to-date.
The sector trades at an estimated average 2025 P/E of 10.4x, with an expected dividend yield of 5.3%, subject to compliance with prudential requirements.
The Central Bank continues to strictly regulate dividend distribution, conditioning it on solvency ratios. In 2025, eight listed banks distributed 802 million dinars for fiscal year 2024, representing an average payout ratio of 53.3%.
2026: strategic caution and selectivity
The Tunisian banking sector enters 2026 with healthier fundamentals, but amid moderate growth and limited visibility. Increased reliance on market activities and sovereign financing acts both as a cyclical buffer and a source of risk concentration.
The year 2025 will be remembered as a strategic turning point: priority to liquidity, capital consolidation, balance-sheet discipline, and prudent risk management. Selectivity has become the guiding principle, for investors and banks alike.
In an still-uncertain environment, the sector has chosen stability over expansion. The question remains whether this defensive stance will, in the medium term, allow a return to more dynamic financing of the real economy.
