Although Tunisia remains the only Arab Spring country that has completed the transition to democratic institutions with the adoption of a new constitution, followed by parliamentary and presidential elections, multiple terrorist attacks, delayed progress on the structural economic reform agenda, and the recent split in the majority Nidaa Tounes party, increase the political and economic headwinds the country faces in its transition to a sustainable growth model, said Moody’s rating agency.
“Average GDP growth over the first three quarters of 2015 declined to 0.7 per cent year-on-year from 2.3 per cent annual growth in 2014, with quarterly figures demonstrating a progressively decelerating trend (Q1: 1.7 per cent y/y, Q2: 0.7 per cent y/ y, Q3: -0.1 per cent y/y).
“The broad-based decline in economic activity across all sectors—except for the record olive oil season in 2014/2015 which is expected to reverse the next season—prompted Moody’s to revise lower our annual growth forecast to 0.5 per cent in 2015 and to 1.5 per cent in 2016 from 1 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.
