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Tunisia: BCT expects inflation to fall sharply in Q3 2020

The trend of disinflation is expected to continue over the coming period, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) said in a note on economic and monetary developments released on Monday.

Inflation will see a sharp drop during Q3 of 2020, after the cyclical rebound recorded in Q2-2020, to stand at 5.4% on average, from 6.1% in Q2 of 2019 and 6.6% in Q3 of 2019.

This slowdown would be driven by a favorable base effect, sustained by the waning of the effect of the increase in tobacco prices in August and September 2019.

It would also be prompted by the continued downward adjustment in the pump prices coupled with the absence of particular pressure on the prices of fresh food products and the seasonal sales affecting clothing and footwear.

The BCT also expects a further gradual slowdown in the main measure of core inflation in Q3-2020, to 5.8% on average, from 5.9% in Q2.


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