“With rising levels of private sector investment, a robust manufacturing segment and a diversified array of energy and agricultural resources, Tunisia is well placed for economic growth in the coming years. Already home to one of North Africa’s best education systems, Tunisia is looking to become a regional health care and financial centre…” These are the major conclusions contained in the 2010 Report of OBG on Tunisia, a 200-page research document on which worked an important team of international analysts to give an overview of all political, economic, social and cultural aspects of Tunisia.
Mrs. Ariana Selleyfan, Director of OBG Tunisia points out that the ” Report Tunisia 2010″ studies ” in detail the political situation, on the regional and international scene, the economic policy and the development of different sectors,” based on graphs, key economic data and more than 300 interview conducted in private and public sectors over a six-month period.
The OBG Report underlines that Tunisia, a founding member of the Union for the Mediterranean (UMF), has strong ties to the European Union (EU), which is its largest trading partner and where many of the 700,000 Tunisian nationals abroad live.
Regarding economy, the report focuses on the resilience gained by the national productive system to external shocks and upheavals of the economic situation. Its points out that despite increasing trade with the EU, Tunisia’s economy escaped the worst of the global crisis due to a low level of external liabilities. The decline of the Tunisian dinar against the euro helped to stabilise the trade market at the start of the recession. GDP growth slowed down to 3% in 2009 from 4.6% in 2008. In 2009 foreign direct investment reached TD2.38bn (€1.26bn), with oil and gas receiving TD1.38bn (€732.5m), while TD657.6m (€349m) was spent on manufacturing. Unemployment is officially at 14.2%, although it is estimated to rise among among young graduates.
The 2010 budget includes stimulus funds to aid job creation and income growth, building on a TD730m (€387.5) stimulus package in 2009. Government subsidies for hydrocarbons, convenience goods and transportation have also been increased in the 2010 budget to neutralize a 20% drop in aggregate demand for manufactured goods. The Direction Générale de la Privatisation oversees the privatization of state-owned enterprises – as of 2010, there are 11 companies left on its list: five industrial, five services and an agribusiness. The EU continues to serve as the dominant trade partner, with France playing a prominent role, but Germany is becoming increasingly important – bilateral trade with Tunisia reached €2.35bn in 2009.
This chapter contains an interview with Mohamed Nouri Jouini, Minister of Development and International Cooperation; Mohamed Sakhr El Materi, CEO of Princess El Materi Holding and Founder of Banque Zitouna; and Amor Tahari, Deputy Director, Middle East and Central Asia Department, IMF.
Concerning banking, the report says that Tunisian financial institutions remained fairly robust in the crisis due to excess liquidity and limited exposure to global markets. Reducing the amount of non-performing loans (NPLs) has been a major objective of the Central Bank – at the end of 2009, the level of NPLs stood at around 14%, while single digits are expected by 2014. The leasing segment grew at a record 24% on the back of increased competition, and most leasing companies have NPLs below 10%. There are now 20 commercial banks operating in Tunisia, with 11 publicly traded on the Tunis Stock Exchange. As this is a large number for a population of 10.4m, the banking sector is expected to consolidate in the coming years, with a number of firms eying up regional expansion. Zitouna Bank became the country’s first licensed sharia-compliant retail bank in October 2009. Capital is increasing in the offshore banking segment, reaching TD174.17m (€92.45m) in 2009. Construction of the Tunis Financial Harbour, which will be the first offshoring centre in North Africa, kicked off in June 2009.
On energy, the report notes that petroleum products provide the greatest share (56%) of Tunisia’s energy consumption. Of the 7.7m tonnes of oil equivalent consumed in 2007, 14% was imported. However, decreasing crude production and growing energy demand has led the country to ramp up exploration of its natural gas reserves. Five gas projects are in the works to help Tunisia to become a gas exporter by 2012. Natural gas makes up 95% of electricity production, while renewable energy sources had a share of less than 1% in 2008. In April 2009 France signed a €80m aid deal to help Tunisia develop civil nuclear technology.
The Tunisian Solar Plan (TSP), launched in 2009, is comprised of 40 projects aiming to increase domestic production of renewable energy by 550 MW within five years. Tunisian Gas and Electricity Company (Societé Tunisienne de l’Electricité et du Gaz, STEG) is improving power distribution by constructing overhead and underground lines. A €2bn joint venture between STEG and Italy’s Terna will integrate the countries’ electrical grids. A new conservation programme for 2008-11 is targeting a reduction of energy demand by 20%.
This chapter provides an interview with Ian Perks, President of BG Tunisia.
