Despite a delicate economic context during the first months of 2025, the Tunisian economy has shown resilience in the face of various external shocks.
Several indicators confirm this, starting with improved growth rates, declining inflation and the revision of the country’s sovereign rating, according to an analysis published in a report by the Ministry of Finance on the draft State budget for 2026.
The Tunisian economy succeeded in recording overall positive results across most indicators during the first months of 2025, which encourages continued efforts to find solutions to stimulate the less performing sectors.
Growth of 2.4%
The Tunisian economy posted a 2.4% growth rate during the first half of 2025, the same source indicated. During the second quarter of 2025, estimates from quarterly national accounts show that real GDP, adjusted for seasonal variations, increased by one percentage point, bringing year-on-year growth to 3.2%. Quarter-on-quarter, compared to the first quarter of 2025, GDP rose by 1.8%.
The added value of the agricultural sector increased by 9.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025. The agricultural sector contributed 0.84 percentage points to the 3.2% growth recorded in the second quarter of 2025.
The services sector maintained a positive pace of activity during Q2 2025, with its added value increasing by 1.9%.
Year-on-year, the added value of industrial activities increased by 3.4% in Q2 2025.
Inflation drops to 5% in September
Inflation also decreased in September 2025, reaching 5% compared to 5.2% the previous month.
This decline is mainly due to a slowdown in food price increases (5.7% in September 2025 vs. 5.9% in August 2025), leisure and culture prices (4.6% vs. 5.4%), and prices of restaurant, café and hotel services (10.1% vs. 10.6%).
Transport service prices also fell to 3.1% in September 2025 compared to 3.6% in August.
This downward trend in monthly inflation observed since the beginning of 2025 was a key factor enabling monetary policy to review the benchmark interest rate.
The Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) reduced this rate to 7.5% in March 2025, for the first time after a series of increases between 2022 and 2024.
Trade deficit reaches TND 14,640 million
By the end of August 2025, trade flows recorded a slight decline in export growth of 0.3%, while imports rose by 4.8%.
This gap widened the trade deficit, which reached TND 14,640 million, compared to TND 11,925 million during the same period in 2024.
The trade deficit excluding energy decreased to TND 7,492 million.
By sector, exports increased in mining, phosphates and derivatives (+11.9%) and mechanical and electrical industries (+6.7%).
On the other hand, exports declined in the energy sector (-39%) due to lower sales of refined products (TND 504.2 million vs. TND 1,323.2 million), as well as in the agri-food industry (-16.2%) following a drop in olive oil export revenues (TND 2,702.4 million).
Imports of capital goods increased (+17.4%), and raw materials and semi-finished products grew (+7.5%). In contrast, imports of energy products fell (-13.8%) and food products (-3.9%).
According to Ministry of Finance data, tourism revenues rose by the end of September 2025 compared to the same period of 2024, reaching approximately TND 6,264 million.
Remittances from Tunisians living abroad continued their upward trend, reaching TND 6,486 million as of September 30, 2025, an increase of 8.1% year-on-year.
Net foreign exchange reserves also grew significantly, reaching the equivalent of 107 days of imports as of October 23, 2025, according to BCT statistics.
By the end of September 2025, the Tunisian dinar appreciated against the US dollar and the euro by 2.8% and 0.5% respectively, compared to the same period in 2024.
Sovereign rating improves
The economic results of 2025 had a positive impact on Tunisia’s sovereign rating, particularly as global credit rating agencies revised the rating assigned to the country due to the maintained control of the current account deficit, available foreign currency reserves, and reduced budget deficit.
According to the report, these indicators contributed to reducing risks associated with public debt servicing and strengthened confidence in the national economy. It is worth noting that Moody’s upgraded Tunisia’s rating in February 2025 from Caa2 to Caa1 with a stable outlook.
Japanese rating agency R&I (Rating and Investment Information) revised Tunisia’s foreign currency issuer rating outlook from negative (B-) to stable on August 22, 2025.
Fitch Ratings upgraded Tunisia’s long-term issuer default rating in foreign and local currency to B- in September 2025, up from CCC+, with a stable outlook.
