The Executive Board of the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT), meeting on December 30, 2025, decided to cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points, bringing it to 7% effective January 7, 2026.
The 24-hour lending and deposit facility rates will be adjusted accordingly, to 8% and 6%, respectively, to ensure consistency within the interest rate corridor and effective transmission of monetary policy to the market. The Board also decided to lower the minimum interest rate on savings to 6%.
According to a BCT statement, the Board indicated that it will continue to closely monitor inflation prospects and macroeconomic stability risks, and remains ready to adjust monetary policy orientation appropriately.
During the same meeting, the Board reviewed recent developments in the global and national economic and financial situation, as well as trends and forecasts for inflation.
At the national level, economic growth reached 2.4% in Q3 2025, down from 3.2% in the previous quarter. Excluding agriculture, growth was limited to 1.5%, compared to 2.6% the previous quarter.
This slowdown reflects the underperformance of key sectors, particularly energy and the textile, apparel, and leather industries.
Trade deficit rises to TND 20.168 billion
Regarding the external sector, the trade deficit (FOB-CIF) worsened to TND 20.168 billion in the first eleven months of 2025, compared to TND 16.758 billion during the same period the previous year, driven by a notable increase in imports.
Strong performance in wage income and tourism revenues helped contain the current account deficit at TND 4.188 billion, representing 2.4% of GDP by the end of November 2025, up from TND 1.841 billion (1.2% of GDP) a year earlier.
Net foreign exchange reserves stood at TND 25.5 billion, covering 108 days of imports as of December 29, 2025, compared to TND 25.8 billion and 116 days a year earlier. Meanwhile, the Tunisian dinar showed resilience in the foreign exchange market, appreciating against the US dollar while adjusting moderately against the euro.
Slow disinflation trend
Regarding consumer prices, the disinflation process continued in recent months, albeit at a relatively slow pace. The inflation rate remained at 4.9% in November 2025. The BCT attributes this mainly to a slowing of inflation in administered prices, amid a continued freeze on most relevant goods and services, combined with a moderate easing of fresh food inflation, which fell to 11.1% in November 2025 from 12% the previous month.
However, core inflation (“excluding fresh food and administered-price products”) continued its gradual rise, reaching 4.7% in November 2025, up from 4.5% the previous month.
International context
Globally, the economy showed notable resilience in 2025 despite various shocks, including tighter protectionist policies and persistent geopolitical tensions. This resilience was supported by a marked easing of pressures on international commodity prices, especially energy, and a significant loosening of international financial conditions.
Based on current developments, average inflation for 2025 is expected to settle at 5.4%, down from 7% in 2024.
