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Tunisia: inflation expected to rise to 3.5% in Q2

Price pressures would tend to increase over the coming months and their rise could come from the risk of rebound in prices of fresh food during the month of Ramadan and the approach of the summer season, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) said in a monthly note on economic situation released on Wednesday, May 4, 2016.

According to the forecasting exercise in April 2016, inflation should reach 3.7% at the end of the second quarter due to an average monthly increase in the CPI of 0.5% during the same period.
Average inflation was 3.5% in the second quarter of 2016 against 3.4% in the first quarter and 3.3% during the month of March of the same year.

The central forecast scenario is based on a number of assumptions. These including according to the Central Bank:

– Increase in prices of regulated goods limited to the rates of drinking water by SONEDE in May, 2016.

– Strong recovery in clothing prices following the end of the period of winter sales.

– Stabilization of international oil prices at relatively low levels.

– Rise in production input costs (including salaries), and slight depreciation of the dinar against major foreign currencies.


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