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Tunisia: Inflation will peak at 6.2% in May (official estimates)

Inflation could peak to around 6.2% (yoy) in mid-2013, before falling to 5.8% at the end of the year, according to forecasts of the Tunisian government.

 

In Tunisia, the inflation rate rose from 4.2% at end-2011 to 5.9% in December 2012 (yoy).

 

This 1.7% increase in one year is mainly explained by higher wages, higher prices for food and energy products, problems with the distribution system and rising demand from Libya.

 

According to government forecasts, inflation could peak around 6.2% (yoy) in mid-2013, but is expected to fall to 5.8% at the end of the year, thanks to a prudent monetary policy and measures to curb rising prices.

 

To counter the rising inflationary pressures, especially if underlying inflation is increasing rapidly, the Central Bank of Tunisia (BCT) will have to further tighten its conservative monetary policy, which does not rule out a further increase in key interest rate.

 

The government hopes, however, to bring inflation down to 4% in the medium term. 

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