“Tunisia could face a 28% surtax on its exports, particularly olive oil, to the United States,” warns the Tunisian Observatory of the Economy (OTE) in a recently published note. This situation, it says, highlights the urgent need to accelerate the diversification of export markets.
In the note titled “Costly U.S. Protectionism for Tunisia”, the OTE emphasizes the importance of boosting exports to countries where Tunisia still runs a trade deficit, as well as tapping into emerging markets for olive oil in Africa and Asia.
The observatory warns that this new surtax could significantly impact export revenues, particularly for olive oil and fertilizers, whose value may decline.
Tunisia’s olive oil could lose its price competitiveness in the U.S. market, especially when compared to the lower 20% customs duty applied to EU countries and emerging exporters like Turkey, Argentina, and Morocco.
Italy and Spain also affected
OTE adds that Tunisia may also face indirect effects, as Italy and Spain are subject to the same protectionist policies. This could reduce their exports to the U.S., in turn decreasing their demand for bulk Tunisian olive oil.
Between 2020 and 2024, Tunisia’s exports to the U.S. grew by 144%, generating a trade surplus of 215.8 million dinars in 2024.
The U.S. is now Tunisia’s 6th largest export destination, accounting for over 3% of total export value. Olive oil alone makes up 99.6% of Tunisian exports to the U.S. in the “fats, oils, and waxes” category, making the U.S. the third-largest importer of Tunisian olive oil.
To counter U.S. protectionism, OTE argues that Tunisia must reassess its over-specialization in certain products, which makes it highly vulnerable to trade and geopolitical shocks.
It also stresses the importance of reducing dependence on specific export markets, cutting import needs, and safeguarding national sovereignty.
In April, the U.S. President announced new tariffs on all imports to reduce the national trade deficit.
The plan includes a general 10% tariff, with varying rates by country, Tunisia being hit with a particularly high 28%.
According to OTE, this is the highest rate applied to any country in the MENA region.
Europe on Alert
In Europe, local media report that many extra virgin olive oil producers risk losing their competitiveness and U.S. market share in the medium term.
While European market observers say it will take time to assess the full impact of the new tariffs, many producers and associations are calling for a unified response from Brussels.
“The E.U. cannot stand idly by in a world where trade balances are changing rapidly and Trump has wrecked the World Trade Organization (WTO) agreements,” Olive Oil Times quoted Ricardo Serra, president of Asaja-Andalucía, as saying.
Serra noted how the E.U. adapted its agricultural policies for years to meet WTO standards: “We have removed tariffs and linked CAP subsidies to crop production, and now it turns out that overnight and in one fell swoop, Trump has blown all of that up.”
