Contrary to projections from international institutions such as the African Development Bank (AfDB) and the World Bank, Tunisia’s economic growth rate exceeded 1.9%, reaching 2.4% in the first half of 2025, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INS) on Friday.
In the second quarter of 2025, estimates from quarterly national accounts show that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in volume, adjusted for seasonal variations, grew by 3.2% year-on-year, the INS said.
Quarter-on-quarter, meaning compared to the first quarter of 2025, GDP increased by 1.8%.
Agriculture, Industry, and Services – Three Major Growth Drivers
The INS also reported a 3.3% year-on-year rise in domestic demand in volume terms, contributing positively by 3.59% to the 3.2% economic growth recorded in the second quarter of 2025.
In contrast, the balance of trade in goods and services had a negative contribution of -0.43%, due to a 9.6% drop in export volumes of goods and services and an 8.9% increase in import volumes.
The added value of the agricultural sector grew by 9.8% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. Agriculture contributed 0.84 percentage points to the 3.2% growth rate recorded in the same period.
The services sector maintained a positive growth pace in the second quarter of 2025. Its added value rose by 1.9%, driven by a 7% increase in the hotels, restaurants, and cafés sector; a 3% increase in the transport sector; and a 1.5% rise in the information and communications sector.
Overall, services contributed 1.21 percentage points to the 3.2% growth rate in the second quarter.
The added value of the manufacturing industries sector also grew by 3.9%, boosted by a 10.1% increase in the chemical industries, 9.6% in mechanical and electrical industries, and 7.7% in mining industries.
Meanwhile, the added value of the energy, mining, water production and distribution, sanitation, and waste management sector rose by 2.1% in the second quarter of 2025, thanks to a 39.5% surge in the mining sector and a 9.6% increase in the construction and building sector.
Forecasts Sent Back to the Drawing Board
It should be noted that these rates do not align, or align only slightly, with those forecast by the economic analysts of two major financial and development institutions, namely the African Development Bank and the World Bank.
The AfDB had projected Tunisian GDP growth of 1.9% in 2025 and 2.3% in 2026, driven mainly by expected performance in agriculture and manufacturing, according to its latest report on Tunisia.
The World Bank forecast fell within the same range, projecting 1.9% growth in 2025 and 1.6% in 2026. According to the latest World Bank projections, published in its Global Economic Prospects report, Tunisia is expected to record growth of 1.9% in 2025, followed by 1.6% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
