The international economic situation remains complex and unstable, but this has not prevented Tunisia from continuing its macroeconomic stabilization efforts, regaining moderate growth (+1.4%) after stagnation in 2023, said Governor of the Central Bank of Tunisia, Fathi Nouri.
This result was supported mainly by a good agricultural season, thanks to improved weather conditions, as well as the performance of the market services sector, particularly tourism.
This development was able, in fact, to offset the underperformance of the industrial sector, which suffered from the weakening of manufacturing activity in the Eurozone and difficulties in the extractive sector, Nouri explained.
He added that economic activity was mainly driven by domestic demand, which constituted the principal engine of growth, thanks to strong private consumption and the recovery of investment, despite the negative impact of external demand due to the slowdown in the economies of Tunisia’s main Eurozone trading partners.
Not enough to absorb unemployment
According to the head of the issuing institution, this pace of economic growth nevertheless remains insufficient to absorb unemployment, the rate of which fell slightly to 16% at the end of the third quarter of 2024 (compared to 16.4% at the end of 2023).
With regard to the external sector, 2024 was marked by continued control of the current account deficit, which dropped to -2,425 million dinars, or -1.5% of GDP, compared to -2.2% a year earlier, he recalled.
He added that this improvement was attributable to the performance of foreign-currency-generating sectors, notably the strengthening of tourism revenues and remittances from Tunisians abroad.
By contrast, the trade balance deficit (FOB-CIF) widened by around 11% compared to 2023, reflecting an increase in imports against stagnant exports, despite higher export earnings from the olive oil sector, he further noted.
Foreign reserves rebuilt
The solid performance of the main current account indicators of the balance of payments made it possible to rebuild foreign exchange reserves, which stood at 27.3 billion dinars at the end of 2024, equivalent to 121 days of imports (compared to 120 days a year earlier), despite a sharp rise in long-term external debt service repayments.
Consequently, the dinar’s exchange rate against the main foreign currencies remained almost stable.
As for public finances, the governor recalled that the budget deficit excluding privatizations and grants contracted to 6% of GDP in 2024 (against -7.6% in 2023).
This fiscal consolidation reflects tighter management of budgetary spending combined with an increase in the state’s own revenues, supported by the recovery in economic activity.
For its part, the public debt ratio fell by 3.4 percentage points, to 81.2% of GDP compared with 84.6% a year earlier.
Continuation of disinflationary process
With regard to consumer prices, the inflation rate gradually eased to 6.2% year-on-year at the end of 2024, compared with 8.1% a year earlier. The average annual inflation rate dropped to 7%, from 9.3% in 2023.
According to Nouri, this easing was mainly due to lower international commodity prices combined with the near-stability of the dinar’s exchange rate, as well as the impact of restrictive monetary policy on demand.
Despite the gradual continuation of this disinflationary process, the international environment remained subject to upward risks on prices, prompting the Central Bank of Tunisia to pursue a prudent monetary policy by keeping its key interest rate at 8% throughout 2024.
On another front, during 2024 the Central Bank continued implementing its second strategic plan (2023–2025), strengthening project management and monitoring efforts while ensuring alignment with the 2024 Annual Report.
This dynamic was reflected in particular by the completion of the strategic project for the establishment of a “management and innovation system of the Central Bank of Tunisia.”
