The “super” Minister of the Tunisian Economy, Ali Kooli, would have finally made his supplementary budget bill 2021. And the latter would bring neither good news nor new solutions. A bill, in short, tinkering more than anything else.
This update of the initial budget law has first corrected the growth rate to 3.7% instead of 4%. But Ali Kooli does not seem to be in the same Tunisia as the rest of the people, a country, again ravaged by the COVID-19, a pandemic that will have at least completely brought to its knees the sector that contributed up to 14% to the GDP.
Update also of the reference price of the oil barrel from 45 USD to USD 67. But he did not read as we did the Post by this oil expert, the economist Fethi Nouri, who reported that “the United Arab Emirates declare the price war to Saudi Arabia”, and indicated that the barrel was already at 72.59 USD.
And finally, of course, it would now be a state budget 2021, no longer 51.804 billion DT, but 56.017 billion DT. A gap of 4.213 billion, essentially born of new spending signed by the government, without having the money to cover these expenses.
– All that Mechichi signed, in detail
He has, however, given details of all the agreements signed by the government with the UGTT and others, on the sidelines of the initial finance law. But also, on the increase to 17.52% of GDP (official) of the wage bill. But first things first.
According to the 1st copy of the supplementary bill, the budget would now be 44.635 billion DT, with an overrun of 4.432 billion compared to what was planned, including 835 MD more than expected, for wages.
In detail, here is the direct financial impact of the agreements signed at arm’s length by the current prime minister:
– 251 MD under the latest agreements signed by the government with the UGTT.
– 208 MD of increases for Ministry of Health’s staff.
– 179 MD for new hires (long-term unemployment, PhDs, and construction workers).
– 108 MD for agreements with the Ministry of the Interior.
– 89 MD in salary increases for magistrates, Customs and even the Prime Ministry!
– Public debt, now at 91.8% of total GDP.
After this update, the wage volume will be 20.953 billion DT, up almost 4% from what was expected, representing almost 47% of the entire budget, and almost 18% of the entire GDP.
To this, we must add the increase by 55 MD of management expenses (1.955 billion TD in total), especially for the health sector, and a rise by 401 MD in the needs of compensation, which will now cost 2.526 billion TD (4.07% of GDP), simply by correcting the initial projection of the global oil price, because a bad forecast is also paid cash, the latest increases in domestic prices have brought the state only 862 MD!
But the State, at the end of this first half of 2021, did not give only for the compensation of oil. It has also disbursed 360 MD for construction workers, and 314 MD to needy families on the occasion of Ramadan and Eid.
The State had also intervened, up to 100 MD with the Sotugar as a guarantee of credits granted by banks to companies affected by the COVID, and even disbursed 20 MD in compensation for its responsibility arising from the use of vaccines, as stipulated by law 10/2021.
All these exceptional measures, including credits given by the BTS, would cost the budget 819 MD.