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Tunisia: Good agricultural season and recovery of production in energy and mining

The BCT Executive Board held on September 30, 2009 its monthly meeting. In a press release, it pointed out that , over September 2009, the international economic and financial situation was marked by ongoing appearance of indicators reflecting signs of start-up of recovery for the world economy though forecasts account for low levels of growth in 2010. Concurrently, prices for most commodities went up, while the financial markets are still marked by sharp volatility and the dollar exchange rate posted depreciation against the other main currencies.

In considering these trends, the international financial institutions stressed the need to pursue economic recovery programmes and to boost capital market stability further to introduction of necessary reforms within the world financial system in order to avoid future crisis.

At the national level, the economic trend was characterised, up to September, by good agricultural season, notably, for the cereal crop, and recovery of production in energy and mining sectors ; whereas trade with abroad pursued its downward trend despite the improvement recorded in July and August at the level of export in some export oriented sectors, notably, mechanical and electrical industries.

The service sector continued to post slower activity in tourism and air transport, influencing thus trend in tourist receipts in foreign currency which grew by 3% on 20 September 2009, against 9.1% in the same period of 2008.

As for trend in prices, the inflation rate came at 3.4% in average, in the first eight months of the current year compared to 5.4% in the same period of  the previous year and this thanks, mainly to slower progress pace in the prices of foodstuff and energy.

At the monetary level, M3 money supply and financing to the economy grew, in August 2009, by 9.8% and 6.7%, respectively, compared to end 2008.

Excess liquidity on the money market was pursued in September, requiring thus intervention by the Central Bank to mop up this surplus. Interest rate on this market fluctuated between 4.05% and 4.42% up to 28 September 2009, compared to an average of 4.18% in August of the same year .
Trend in the dinar on the foreign exchange market, from the beginning of the current year and up to 30 September, posted an appreciation of 2.6% against the euro and a depreciation of  0.8% against the US dollar.

In light of these evolutions, the executive Board decided to keep unchanged the key rate of the Central Bank of Tunisia.


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