Jordan’s economy could face stagnation this year as political unrest in the region threatens to unhinge its biggest industries and further weaken its fiscal situation, analysts have said.
The Arab country, which has limited natural resources and depends largely on political ties to uphold its economy, is challenged with reducing its budget deficit and minimising public debt.
Should the political unrest worsen or last the summer months, analysts fear it may deter foreign investment and curb tax revenues, while pushing up commodity price. “Jordan is one of the few economies in the Middle East with scant natural resources,” said Brad Philips, an economist for the MENA region from IHS Global Insight.
“It has been affected relatively more by the political turmoil than the wealthy Gulf countries or energy exporting countries of North Africa.”
In the face of prolonged political turmoil, he said, the government could be forced to provide concessions such as wage hikes and subsidies, causing it to tighten monetary policy. Increases in the cost of fuel, construction materials and food meanwhile, are expected to widen Jordan’s trade deficit. Oil prices are expected to cause the biggest issue, he said, Brent crude hitting a 32-month high in March, reaching more than $127 a barrel.
“Excessively high commodity costs and tightening monetary policy could lead to economic stagnation,” added Philips. Other analysts have similar views, but emphasize the risks to tourism and foreign investment, the backbone of Jordan’s economy.
In February this year, the industry took a $70m hit as a direct result of the ongoing civil unrest in Egypt, government data showed. It’s a significant blow to an industry which last year generated revenues of $2bn in the first seven months of the year alone.
“Tourism was hit most by the unstable conditions,” said Zayyan Zawaneh, a former adviser at the Central Bank of Jordan, the Ministry of Finance and the International Monetary Fund. “Investors are also more cautious than before, and are currently taking a ‘wait and see’ approach. If the unrest continues into the summer, the whole graph of the economy will be affected, starting a chain of reactions.” John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi said both tourism revenues and foreign investment will fall in 2011.
Weighing in Jordan’s favour is its political stability, when compared with neighbouring Arab states, which analysts say will boost its chances of receiving financial aid from the West.
Meanwhile, its key industries, which include trade, medical tourism and repatriated remittances, have also been less affected than reports would have us believe, they say. 4,500 hotel rooms added to Mideast, Africa pipeline in April Nearly 4,500 extra hotel rooms were added to the Middle East and Africa construction pipeline in April, according to new data released by STR Global.
The region’s development pipeline now comprises 443 hotels totalling 122,775 rooms, according to the April 2011 STR Global report.
This represents an additional 11 hotels being planned, with the total number of rooms under development jumping from 118,338 to 122,775.
STR Global said nearly 50 percent of rooms in the active pipeline were being planned in the four- and five-star hotel category.
Economy hotel rooms continued to make up the smallest portion of rooms in the total active pipeline with just two percent of the total but analysts says this is likely to change in the future.
Earlier this month, Jones Lang LaSalle predicted that a boom in high-quality low-cost hotels is set to revolutionise the Middle East’s hotel industry in the same way budget airlines have shaken up aviation.
The rapid growth of mid-range hotels in the region is set to mirror Europe’s budget hotel growth two decades years ago, with Saudi holy cities Makkah and Medina leading the way. Nearly 40,000 extra hotel rooms are expected to be available to tourists visiting the Middle East and Africa region during 2011.
So far, 17 hotels offering more than 4,000 rooms have opened in the region, STR Global said in April. Hotels in the region reported mixed performance in the first quarter of 2011. Occupancy fell 7.8 percent to 56.8 percent, while average daily rates (ADR) were up 9.4 percent to $176.31, and revenue per available room (RevPAR) experienced a slight increase, rising 0.9 percent to $100.17.